05 Apr 2021 20:21:43
I do like the idea of targeting Jenner and have put trades out for him in the past. Leafs go all in.
Clb
Nylander 6.96
Tor
Jenner 3.75(50% retained)
2022 2nd
Del Zotto .7
Columbus gets more high end talent that they lack. Laine is the shooter and Nylander the puck carrier.
Toronto gets Jenner paying a premium for his 1.5 years of retention. Del Zotto adds great D depth and another 2nd in the 2022 draft. They also now have over $4M in cap space for another move.
Leafs then make a second move
Cal
Kerfoot 3.5
Tor
Bennett 2.55
Calgary starts their re-tool by moving Bennett and get some speed in Kerfoot which they could use some speed.
Leafs pick up a project in Bennett who is known as a playoff performer and brings more grit than Kerfoot. Leafs now have about $6M in cap space gained. Could bring in goalie insurance and/or depth without moving anyone off of the roster.
Hyman Matthews Marner
Galchenyuk Tavares Jenner
Mikheyev Engvall Bennett
Simmonds Spezza Thornton
Robertson
Rielly Brodie
Muzzin Holl
Del Zotto/Dermott/Bogosian
05 Apr 2021 21:11:43
I like these deals as they make Toronto harder to play against. Let’s just hope Matthews and Tavares can score even more as Bennett and Jenner don’t even come close to replacing nylanders offence
I still would love Leafs to take this chance as teams won’t enjoy playing leafs now.
05 Apr 2021 22:29:50
I like all the targets and the cap space. Only thing I would question is what can Nylander bring in return? I would assume a bit more.
I have a really hard time valuing Willy though. I know how we all feel about him but what's the word on him around the league?
05 Apr 2021 22:54:59
@LL. I put the over a years retention at 50% being the equivalent of a 1st. So would equal Jenner (at full cap), a 1st, 2nd and DelZotto. I would think that would be a really good return for Willy if we got that. The retention value isn't really seen, so it looks like we should get more. Of course I could be off on that.
@Craigger. Bennet and Jenner won't likely replace Willy's offence, but we have lots of interchangeable parts to move around to find chemistry. Jenner and Bennett's points combined this season almost equal Willy's, and 5 on 5 they have more, but that is mot the same thing. I don't believe we would struggle offensively, we would just be playing a slightly different style than with Willy. I have Matthews/ Marner as a pair and Tavares/ Jenner as a pair. Try Gal or Bennett with MM and put Hyman with JT/ J if needed. Or try Mikheyev in Galchenyuk's spot. There is also the wild card in Robertson. Maybe Dubas roles the dice and goes after a guy like Palmieri with the $6M in cap space. Plus playoff's are rarely about offence, it is about how hard you are to play against and still create offence. Just my thoughts on it.
06 Apr 2021 00:47:07
Probably high skill just has to many other skilled guys around him, he might do well somewhere where he's on the topline.
06 Apr 2021 02:11:29
Let’s break this down using recent examples
Jenner 1 year remaining after this year
Coleman for Vanc1st rd Foote (previous draft 27th overall)
Goodrow and Phil 3rd rd for 1st rd greco (26 yr old ahler)
So with that info Jenner is more valuable than goodrow but less than Coleman.
1st rounder and previous years 2nd rd roni Hirvonen
Then 650K (50%remaining) this year =6th rounder
Then 50 % 1.875 cap 1.75 salary retain 2 year= 3rd rd
Now Nylander. Top 75 winger in league with 3 years after this year remaining.
850K salary remaining this year
18 million over 3 years after this year
6.9 cap hit
Tough to find recent examples similar but here’s my best using name age at trade years/ salary remaining cap hit
Vincent trocchek. 26 2.25/ 11 million 4.75
Jason Zucker. 28 3.25/ 18 million 5.5
Haula Wallmark 21 and 23 yr old prospects for trocchek
1st rounder Addison (2 previous year 2nd rd) galchenyuk for zucker
So zucker contract remaining at time of deal is the same. He has pretty much same salary remaining but with smaller cap hit on it. I’d say nylander has skill edge as nylander is 4 years younger but not by huge amount and zucker shouldn’t regress that much by contract end
Trocchek is closer to nylanders age than zucker but has 1 less year remaining but less salary and cap per year than both as well. I’d put Trocchek a bit higher on the skill side but again nylander is 2 years younger
So somewhere between these 2 you should find a good trade.
Both trades had upcoming UFA cap dumps coming back
4.9 in Zucker deal for .6 differance
3.4 in Trocchek deal for 1.35 differance
Both got 2 young assets but due to extra year on zucker he Netted a 1st and 2nd basically while Trocchek netted a 2nd and 6th basically
So using those examples I’ll predict nylander gets a 1st rounder a 3rd round prospect and 2 upcoming ufa roster players worth 5.4 in salary dumps
Grigorenko
Savard
Pu
1st rounder
So to make deal work using Jenner for nylander
Jenner replaces grigorenko as cap dump player for temainder of this year. Nylander in turn replaces hirovanen value for remainder of this year but leafs still owe that 6th rounder for 50% cap retain on Jenner this year
Now nylander next year for Jenner with the retaining Columbus gives back that 1st rounder owing in Jenner trade plus the 3rd owed for retaining
Final 2 years of nylander cost 1st rounder Pu and savard
Overall it’s
Nylander 6th rounder
For
Jenner (50% retained)
Savard
Pu
1st rounder
That’s how I see it anyways. Leafs gain 675K in this deal plus $800-1 million once savard replaces 1 bottom pair dman, that's a 1.5 average cap saving. Add in Bennett deal and leafs save 2.4 million to go get a insurance goalie (Rittich) . Then have 5 million next year because of these trades to up Hyman to 5.5 (JT Miller comparable) and Bennett (4.0) leaving 300K. Use Andersen 5 million to give rittich a million raise. Give galchenyuk 3 million raise. Spezza Thornton 1.4 plus 500K of remaining Andersen money to cover 2 of 4th line as Engvall is here still. Dermott probably gone to Seattle. Savard bogosian 5.25 plus 500K of Andersen plus 300 of nylander trade remains. So Sandin liljegren play leaving 4 million to get a winger for JT and galchenyuk
Lol
That was fun.
06 Apr 2021 02:13:38
Nylander has way more value IMO.
06 Apr 2021 13:09:32
@Craigger. I will just comment on your end proposal as I don't have time to brush up on my calculus to go through all the rest. lol
If the Leafs could get that from Columbus for Nylander they should take it.
I have Jenner ranked higher than both Goodrow and Coleman, which would account for the salary differences in the first place. If we want Jenner at the cap of Coleman for a year+, it is going to cost us. Del Zotto is not a cap dump in my mind either. So, Coleman with no retention gets Foote (a high prospect) and a 1st (16-20 range) .
To me, Jenner with 50% retained is at least worth a late 1st, 2nd and really good prospect. At 1.9 he becomes a bargain and worth more than Goodrow or Coleman for sure. Del Zotto gets them at least a 3rd as he is a solid, physical 3rd pair D-man only making .7M.
Is Nylander at $7M more valuable than Jenner at 1.9M? Considering what the Leafs could add with that extra $5.1M, I am not sure he is. Jenner on the Leafs is a top 6 winger who can also play centre and is great on the draw and physical. Nylander is signed longer, so Leafs get the 2nd and Del Zotto (3rd) to make up the difference. CLB also takes on the extra $4.5 in cap hit and we get that cap space, so that costs us as well. CLB will make us pay if we want help with our cap.
Just my take, but to me, Jenner (50%), Savard, 1st and Pu would be a really good haul for Willy.