22 May 2022 16:00:16
Leafs can't decide on much till the Campbell card drops, also Edmonton losing to Calgary would play a factor on their moves during free agency Campbell a likely target.
My belief Campbell to Edmonton as UFA for 6 yrs @ 6 million a year.
Leafs sign Holtby 2 yrs @ 1.5 million as a UFA, with Mzarek & Kallgren in the mix in net.
Leafs resign Giordano & Lybushkin 2 yrs @ 1.5 million for each per season.
From appearances I think in most respect Dubas will attempt to double down ( UFA's Campbell, Mikheyev, Giordano & Lybushkin may move on. ) on the roster, with Nylander being the exception to that mainly because Tavares has the NMC. Seems Willie will be the chip to fall.
Nylander, Kerfoot, Hirvonen & a 1st rd pick in 2022 to Vancouver for Miller & Horvat. With Vancouver eating half of both Horvat & Miller salaries.
A 2nd & 3rd rd pick in 2023 to Arizona to eat half of Miller & Horvat contracts. ( any extra cap space Leafs can save would reap many rewwards, if tweeks or upgrades are needed to prepare for a Cup run, particularly as injuries generalky do affect the roster depth is needed. At C Leafs could use Matthews, Tavares, Miller, Horvat, Marner, Kampf & Engvall, no other team in the league could match that depth. * Absolutely Marner could play C if needed.
Leafs caphit on Miller approx. 1.25 million & for Horvat approx. 1.4 million.
Leafs resign Mikheyev as UFA 4 yrs @ 4 million.
Leafs would be well advised to make room for the prospects play, to facilitate having any necessary cap space for needed tweeks in season or at the trade deadline.
By osmosis Engvall will play tougher with a linemate like Horvat, & the offensive threat of the third line if Robertson or someone from the prospects gels as an offensive threat with Horvat. Would bode well in the reagular season & playoffs. Horvat & Miller do add obvious talent along with tenacity, leadership, size, grit & reliable two way play particularly Horvat in that last respect.
Possible Leafs resign Spezza & him and Simmonds, split some 4th line minutes & Spezza still on 2nd PP when playing.
Bunting Matthews Marner
Miller Tavares Mikheyev
Robertson Horvat Engvall
Holmberg Kampf Simmonds
Reilly Brodie
Muzzin Lybushkin
Giordano Liljegren
Sandin Niemela
Holtby Mzarek
Kallgren
Firstly what you are hoping for in net if Xampbell bolts as a UFA is Kallgren to emerge, or less likely but possibly that Mzarek stays healthy & finds his game. Either of those two outcomes slightly a little more possible, under the guidance of a stanley cup champion mentor in Holtby. With a career 9.15 save percentage, Holtby still had similar save percantage #'s last season. A good # on the $ & term, & Holtby is well worth the gamble !
Dubas has yet to utilize Robidas island, so I do beleve Simmonds & Mzarek while both under contract, are likely to initially be on the roster to start next season.
22 May 2022 16:54:26
Another option presuming Spezza resigns.
Goung with two dominant lines
Playoff lines getting 23 - 25 minutes per game, 46 to 50 minutes leaving 10 to 14 minutes for your 3rd and 4th lines to split.
Going with the 3 dominant line option, they would play approx. 18 minutes per game.
2 lethal lines
Miller Matthews Bunting
Horvat Tavares Marner
Knies Kampf Mikheyev
Engvall Spezza Simmonds
or three lethal lines
Bunting Matthews Knies
Mikheyev Tavares Marner
Horvat Miller Robertson
Spezza Kampf Simmonds.
22 May 2022 18:23:46
Lines decribed in comment
Two line scenario I would categorize as dominant
Miller Matthews Bunting
Horvat Tavares Marner
, the three lines as all lehal just a step below dominant.
Bunting Matthews Knies
Mikheyev Tavares Marner
Horvat Miller Robertson
Whichever way you go dependent on your opposition, the two line scenario maybe more applicable against a Carolina, St. Louis, Dallas or a Calgary where size and shut down lines are neeeded. The three line scenario more applicable to opponents like Edmonton, Colorado, TB or Florida where you have to generate more offense 4, 5, 6 + goals to win games.
The two dominant lines you want outcomes if victories if 4-3, 3-1,3-2, 4-2, etc. You are banking on approx 3- 5 goals from your top 6.
With the 3 line scenario you want 5, 6, 7 + goals at times to win, those will be free wheeling fast games. Goaltending much more of a factor in those types of games though, where in the two line dominant scenario more of a focus is on the bottem 6 forwards to shut down and limit chances from the opposition and keeping everything to the perimiter, shutting down the quality of both the play and the shot. Two very different line combinations, for two very different kinds of hockey games. The different types of opposition teams face or style of play, define both the GM and the coac for a champion must defest whatever is thrown at them. Much like a champion boxer can adapt his style to all opponents, doing so in all scenarios. Sometimes overcoming adversity to achieve victory.
The GM is asked did he provide the personnel and components to succeed talent, skill, size, toughness, etc. to complete the task? Can Dubas now be asked to make roster upgrades, while improving the cap situation. Yes that would seem to be a tough ask, with some bartering and creativity it can be done.
The coach is asked did he utililize his roster appropriately related to ice time, line combinations, strategy, etc., did he adapt to his opposition shoring up any and all weaknesses or deficiencies in the line up due to injuries or other reasons?
Lots of questions in Leafland, next year is pivitol for Keefe, Dubas and Shanny, get it right or see ya. Matthews will be in his final year, another early playoff exit a very very bad thing. Writing is on the wall if Dubas doubles down, he most certainly better get it right.