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16 Aug 2022 04:46:34
I posted a similar but incomplete trade recently.

To Islanders:
Nylander (26), RW, two years left on his $6.9 contract, 34 goals, 80 points
Sandin (22) coming off ELC, contract TBD, protectable 4 - 5 defenseman
Robertson (20), LW, one year left on ELC

To Leafs:
Wahlstrom (22), RW, $0.894, last year of ELC
Beauvillier (25), LW, $4.15
Mayfield (29 - 30 in Oct.) RHD, $1.45, last year of contract

Islanders receive an elite, 1st line, RW to replace Wahlstrom (RW) and line up with Matthew Barzal.
Islanders also have William Dufour (RW Team Canada) in the pipeline) to replace Wahlstrom.
Saves them from making the mistake of signing a 32 year old Kadri to a 6 or 7 year contract for $7 - $8 million a year.
In Robertson, Isles receive a young, projected second line LW , on an ELC to replace Beauvillier
Sandin (22) fits into Islanders defense perfectly.
Noah Dobson (22), Alex Romanov (22), Sandin (22) Pelych (27), Pullock (27) solidifying their defense for years to come.

Leafs get Wahlstrom and Beauvillier to form a second line of:
Beauvillier - Tavares - Wahlstrom
Leafs also receive a RHD in Mayfield to complete a 3rd pairing with Muzzin.
Leafs defense:
Reilly - Brodie
Giordano - Liljegren
Muzzin - Mayfield.

The needs of both teams are met

waterbuffalo49

1.) 16 Aug 2022 05:31:22
As an addendum to my above proposed trade:
I recognize that Lou would be very reluctant to negotiate with Toronto after they spurned him, 5 years ago, in favor of Leafs current dubious iteration of GM.
Lou Lamorillo would HAVE to feel he had won the trade before consummating any deal with the Leafs.
The general consensus is, that the team who gets the best player in a trade, wins the trade.
Nylander is easily the best player which might allow Lou to go home happy to have punished his former persecutors.


2.) 16 Aug 2022 10:58:06
So yet again Nylander is the best player in a trade . Lou would do this trade because he would this by a country mile.


3.) 16 Aug 2022 12:48:09
For a guy that calls Nylander "elite" and questions the value of young players that haven't done alot yet like Wahlstrom, this is the type of trade that you would be the first to say that is really bad for the Leafs and Nylander alone should get this return, nevermind adding Sandin and Robertson.


 

 

09 Aug 2022 04:38:22
To Islanders:
Nylander $6.9
Sandin TBD

To Leafs:
Mayfield - ( RHD) - $1.45
Beauvillier - (LW) - $4.15
Wahlstrom - (RW) - $0.89

Out: $6.9
In: $6.4

Leafs second line becomes:
Beauvillier - Tavares - Wahlstrom

Defense:
Reilly - Brodie
Giordano - Liljegren
Muzzin - Mayfield
Holl

Why?
Islanders get another young defenseman in Sandin to add to Romanov whom they acquired from Montreal at the draft.
Islanders receive a highly skilled right wing,
34 goals - 46 assists - 80 points - 81 games.
Nylander has two (2) more years on his contract.
Nylander can form a line with Barzal and Bailey
Lou is very familiar with Nylander having been involved in drafting him.
Islanders have William Dufour, Right Wing, Team Canada Juniors 2022 coming up through their prospect pool to replace Wahlstrom.

Leafs finish building their 2nd line and are now in a position to trade Kerfoot having replaced him with Beauvillier.

Next question is what team, at this juncture of the summer has the cap space to absorb Kerfoot's salary.
Arizona would possibly like a $3.5 cap hit but in actual dollars less than a million owing.
Arizona owns either Leafs 2023 - 3rd round pick or 2025 - 2nd round pick (their choice) from the Lyubushkin acquisition.
Maybe Dubas could at least get our draft pick back?
With the trade of Kerfoot Leafs are (temporarily) out of cap hell!

waterbuffalo49

1.) 09 Aug 2022 08:25:34
Lou would not touch Nylander definitely not his type of player, in any way, shape or form. Lou likes his business private, the Nylander holdout was anything but quiet or private. Regardless of great stats that bridge is burned.


2.) 09 Aug 2022 10:14:06
Islanders are also looking to shed salary, not add.


3.) 09 Aug 2022 12:06:35
With Pelech, Romanov and Bolduc, the Isles don't really need Sandin, but not a bad idea. If Nylander goes to NYI, it is Dufour I would want coming back. Isle would still have Sanidn, Dobson, Romanov and Bellows to sign after this deal is done. Not ideal. Then they have Barzal and Varlamov to sign next season with no big contracts coming off the books. As others have said, not sure they are looking to take on a cap.


4.) 12 Aug 2022 02:01:06
Leafs67
Islanders have $11 million in cap space at the moment with Bellows and Romanov to sign to bridge contracts and Noah Dobson TBD.
Isles are trying to shed salary so they can sign Kadri.
Which would you rather have line up with Barzal?
Nylander at 26 years of age with 2 years left on his contract at $6.9
Or Kadri at 32 years of age who is looking for a 6 - 7 year term at between $8 - $9?
A no brainer!

Kennedy0315
As far as Lou not touching Nylander?
Perhaps you have forgotten that it was Lou who drafted Nylander to the Leafs.


5.) 12 Aug 2022 13:42:33
@WB. You are forgetting they also have to now sign Sandin as well with this move. Then next year, Barzal and Varlamov.
I agree that Lou would not be against adding Nylander. Barzal, Nelson, Bailey for instance are not very physical either and he hasn't shipped them off.


 

 

06 Aug 2022 02:09:58
To Detroit:
Alex Kerfoot ($3.5)
Rasmus Sandin. (TBD)

To Leafs Filip Zadina (TBD)

Leafs take a chance on a younger more offensively oriented player in Zadina to fill the LW slot with Tavares and Nylander.
Zadina has yet to break through but has tremendous potential.

Sandin gives the Wings the youth they are sacrificing in Zadina.

Kerfoot would fit well with Larkin, Copp, Peron and Bertuzzi

Leafs save some money and create a little cap breathing room.

waterbuffalo49

1.) 06 Aug 2022 12:26:24
I think the Leafs are adding if they want Zadina.


2.) 07 Aug 2022 02:38:38
If Leafs need to add how about sending Nick Robertson as he will be another prospect for the Wings?


3.) 07 Aug 2022 14:03:07
Not many 22 year olds with "tons of potential" are traded in general. If they are, it is usually for an established star as part of a package or for a different position high profile prospect. Rarely are they traded for a group of lesser potential players unless it is to try and get a team over the top. Detroit is just starting to move toward hopefully being competitive.

I just don't see it happening.


 

 

29 Jul 2022 02:38:53
Leafs need to upgrade their 2nd line LW position.
This could be handled by moving Tavares to LW.
That leaves Leafs needing a 2nd line center.

To Seattle:
Alex Kerfoot ($3.5)
Justin Holl ($2)
Sandin ($1.5 TBD)

Approximately $7 out

To Leafs:
Adam Larson ($4)
Alex Weinberg ($4.5 x 1)
Seattle retains ($1.5) for 1 year of Wennberg's contract

In: ($7)

Wennberg's contract has only one more year to run so Seattle's salary retention is short lived.
Sandin adds to Seattle's youth.
Wennberg is talented and may be better suited on the 2nd line with more highly skilled players than he was paired with on the Kraken.
If Wennberg is a good fit Leafs could look at resigning him.
If not, his contract is up in the summer of 2023
Larson would be a good fit on the right side of Leafs blue line.

Reilly - Brodie
Muzzin - Larson
Giordano - Liljegren
Would make me much more comfortable!

waterbuffalo49

1.) 29 Jul 2022 14:18:49
This trade puts you you just under 1.5mil over the cap. would not work.


2.) 29 Jul 2022 17:06:58
Wennberg's contract is for 2 more years, not one. Seattle may want more for 2 years retention as opposed to 1 year.


3.) 29 Jul 2022 20:05:52
We are already over the cap you’d have to move more for this to work.


4.) 29 Jul 2022 23:55:15
Sportrak shows Wennberg having one more year.
Perhaps I have miss read it.

The $1.5 Seattle takes back balances the cap to where it is now and eliminates the need to sign Sandin.
The cap overage Leafs are looking at now will be resolved by sending two of the losers of the retread competition between Gaudette, Malgin, NAK, Mete, Benn, Simmons, Clifford to the Marlies.


5.) 30 Jul 2022 18:42:10
Leafs are 1.493 million over the cap and this is before Sandin is signed. The estimate you give him doesn’t count as savings in deal as anything he signs for plus the 1.493 leafs are over is the true figure to go with.

So the real money in money out with the 1.5 you stated Seattle retains is 7 as you stated. However the money out is only 5.5 so leafs are now around 3 million over.

Leafs can be up to 8.25 million over the cap until the opening day of nhl season but that’s a silly thought.
Leafs have 20 skaters and 2 goalies counting against the cap and league rule states team must at all time have 18 skaters and 2 goalies minimum counting against the cap. No players are waiver exempt of the 22 right now so sending 2 players on waivers minimum saves 1.5 million so leafs are still back to 1.5 over the cap with no extras in case of injury

Let’s take money out of this.
On paper, the eye test and a basic understanding of hockey tells me kerfoot is better than wennberg. This ain’t even close. Kerfoot defends better, hits more, blocks more. He passes better and skates faster. He puts up more points playing less power play time. Wennberg is bigger and does win the faceoffs at better rate but 46% vs 42% while is a big differance on a whole they both suck at faceoffs and both are best when on the wing. On top of this kerfoot is only owed $750 K for rest of the year not his 3.5 cap value while wennberg is owed 10 million salary which is 500K over his cap value each season.

Now for Larson. This would be huge. Right now brodie Holl and liljegren man the right side. That’s stinky.
Muzzin and Gio get to duke it out to not play with holl. Getting larsson creates a great 1-2 right side punch while liljegren plays 3rd pair minutes we’re he belongs and holl we need not watch him any more.
Larson would look good with either Rielly or muzzin. I’d prefer Brodie with Rielly as I truely feel once muzzin has a true shut down stay at home dman he will start to look like himself again. Muzzin has a offensive game he just doesn’t have the partners to trust for him to do it. Down side to larsson much like muzzin he is hurt a lot. Also, his cap is 4 with 3 years left but he is owed 13.5 salary not the cap value of 12 over those 3 years. Either way Larson to me is close to a must but wennberg is a no go

In closing
Kerfoot holl 5.5 cap 2.75 salary
For
Larson 4 cap 3.5 salary then 10 in last 2 years

Does this get leads the dman they have needed for a long time. I mean both players leaving are ufa in summer vs 3 years of of player coming

I think a pick and or prospect will still be needed. Just not of Sandin level.

Lindell, Hollowell, Villanueva level d prospect
Abruzzese, Steeves, abramov level F prospect

So add 1 of each group (1 per extra season Larson is signed) and Seattle might bite

That was long.


6.) 02 Aug 2022 03:21:25
JDB3194

Thanks so much for the breakdown of the financial aspects of my trade.
I appreciate the time and effort.
I was trying to work Sandin into the equation as the Kraken will want youth as a sweetener.
Kerfoot is 28 - August 11th and Holl is already 30 and doesn’t fit into the Kraken’s timeline.
Larson like many seem to have the injury bug and you can only hope for the best.
I do feel he would be a great fit in Leafs top 4.


 

 

11 Jul 2022 00:59:03
Flyers are badly in need of more offense.

To Flyers: Nylander ($6.9), plus (Rights to Campbell and Mikheyev or a pick or a prospect like Robertson) Flyers choice

To Leafs: Carter Hart ($3.997) and Travis Konecny ($5)

waterbuffalo49

1.) 11 Jul 2022 02:21:47
Flyers have 0 cap space and still need to sign Frost, Tippet and MacEwan. They aren't likely interested in signing Campbell and Mikheyev on top of Nylander's salary and Leafs aren't getting Konecny and Hart for Nylander and Robertson.


2.) 11 Jul 2022 06:17:05
@RLF they'll find a way to do something dumb lol.


3.) 11 Jul 2022 13:13:50
@LL. Well, lets hope they are really dumb then. lol.


 

 

 

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20 Jun 2022 01:49:01
Jason Spezza -3
Kyle Clifford-4
Wayne Simmons -7

Yet for large parts of the 2021 - 2022 season they were Leafs 4th line playing less than 10 minutes per game.

Kyle Dubas needs to do a much better job of providing the team with at least adequate, bottom 6 players.

In comparison, Tampa has players like Corey Perry, Ross Colton and Patrick Maroon in their bottom 6.

Leafs needs seem obvious?

waterbuffalo49

1.) 20 Jun 2022 06:17:22
Look at Tampa's cap. It isn't even close to the same situation. Tampa was 10s of millions over the cap during multiple cap run, currently they're slightly above, but star players took 9.5 on long term deals. Dubas has MM, AM and JT all at 11/ yr.

It's a wildly different situation.

I also find people don't recognize how many games Vassy steals for them. He will go down as one of the best goaltenders in history, that isn't exactly replicable.


 

 

20 Jun 2022 01:05:40
I have been a Leaf fan for 65 years.
My interest in the Leafs has had me following and enjoying this Leaf site for a number of years.
Yet I consistently see fans of the Blue & White overvaluing the Leaf players they wish to trade away and undervaluing the very players they want another team to send back in return?
For a trade to work it must benefit both teams needs and the direction that team is going, whether it is trying to contend or early in a rebuild!
Except on the very odd occasion a GM get fleeced (Gary Lehman and spare parts for Doug Gilmour and parts) trades are not nearly as one sided as many of the suggestions I read on Leaf Trade Rumors.
Am I the only one who notices this?

waterbuffalo49

1.) 20 Jun 2022 02:13:30
@WB trade value is so extremely subjective. Obviously if I offered Knies for McDavid I'm off on value. The flip side though, what if offered Mathews+Knies+1st for McDavid? Most EDM fans probably say no, most Leafs fans also probably say no.


 

 

21 Mar 2022 03:23:37
Over the past two trade deadlines, Dubas has traded away one 1st round pick, two 2nd round picks, a 3rd round pick and a 4th round pick for a 33 year old, injury prone, UFA, Foligno and a 38 year old, UFA greybeard Giordano.
It's long past time to fire Dubas.
His litany of mistakes, errors in judgement and player assessment are costing the Leafs the best years of Matthews and Marner's careers.
In two years Matthews walks away as a UFA because of the 5 year contract Dubas agreed to?
Time to get a real GM who knows what they are doing (do any of them?)

waterbuffalo49

1.) 21 Mar 2022 04:45:34
I'm not sure what anyone expected though. This team is essentially locked in now.

Muzzin has a NMC, Rielly just signed long term, JT is getting older and his salary isn't going to go down, Soup needs a new deal, MNM over have a couple years left now, what's a new GM going to do?

You hate on Kennedy for overhauling the team, but want a new GM to what, stay the course? What's the point then?

Leafs are starting to remind me of SJ. Good team that stuck fighting LA and CHI until they couldn't keep up.

The Atlantic is going to be one of the best divisions of all time in a few years. MTL could turn it around next year, OTT is getting better, DET is coming.


 

 

21 Mar 2022 03:18:00
Dubas' moves become more questionable daily.
He just extended Kyle Clifford for two years (a terrible move) and now waives him.
Have to clear cap space for the ridiculous Giordano trade?

waterbuffalo49

1.) 21 Mar 2022 04:46:19
What's so bad about Gio? You can't just do nothing with the defence unless we're calling this a lost season.


2.) 21 Mar 2022 06:36:32
Putting players who are 1 way contracted on waivers yesterday means they can play AHL playoffs and move up and down rest of year without waivers. Clifford is a leader who approved Dubas doing this, if joins picks him up the marlies gain a great playoff weapon and if an injury happens clifford is back

If u wait till today now these players can’t play AHL playoffs, it’s all strategy due to leagues dumb cap rules.


3.) 21 Mar 2022 10:04:32
I am quite pleased with Gio joining the Leafs. Any of the so called media gurus would say he did well, not giving up the 1st, especially when you see the cost other went for - they also got a good 3rd/ 4th liner, smaller of course.


 

 

16 Mar 2022 05:04:28
Don't know I'd anyone has noticed the dramatic uptick in Holl's play since he is no longer paired with Muzzin?
Brodie and Holl make a really good second pairing.
Holl had the best analytic numbers of any Leaf defenseman in the Dallas game.
I would be reluctant to trade him without getting a better RHD in return.

waterbuffalo49

1.) 16 Mar 2022 11:35:14
I think Holl has gradually played better since they sat him out. He looks more confident with the puck and less indecisive which is what was getting him in trouble and making poor plays. Brodie tends to make all his partners look good. I am not sure if it is because Holl is not with Muzzin or it is just Holl started getting his confidence back and just a coincidence that it was while Muzzin has been out.


2.) 16 Mar 2022 14:15:03
I would pump the brakes on holl a bit here yes he has been overall better but he still has quite a few bad plays a game last night he did look good with that bubble on his head.


 

 

 

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16 Aug 2022 05:31:22
As an addendum to my above proposed trade:
I recognize that Lou would be very reluctant to negotiate with Toronto after they spurned him, 5 years ago, in favor of Leafs current dubious iteration of GM.
Lou Lamorillo would HAVE to feel he had won the trade before consummating any deal with the Leafs.
The general consensus is, that the team who gets the best player in a trade, wins the trade.
Nylander is easily the best player which might allow Lou to go home happy to have punished his former persecutors.

waterbuffalo49

 

 

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16 Aug 2022 01:55:27
Definitely would like to see Muzzin in a Washington Capitals uniform this coming season if he agreed to waive is NTC!
$5.6 million in cap savings would cover Leafs overage $ (1.4 million), sign Sandin ($2 - TBD), Trade Kerfoot ($3.5) to Arizona for Leafs 3rd round pick back, and have approximately $6.5 million in cap space to upgrade the 2nd line LW position.
Perfect.

waterbuffalo49

 

 

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16 Aug 2022 01:49:15
Pospisil is a 173lbs, left shooting center.
Unless a right handed winger is coming back to take Nylander’s spot in the lineup, this trade leaves a huge hole on the right side of Leafs second line.
Yes, Jarnkrok shoots right, but he is a 31 year old, career 3rd line player!
Ruzicka is also left shooting.

Taylor Raddysh, (24 years old) on the other hand is a 6’3”, 200lbs, right wing.
If Sandin (22 years old) does not want to be a Leaf this would be a good exchange of young assets.

waterbuffalo49

 

 

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16 Aug 2022 01:37:33
I am not a fan of trading for Chychrun but if Arizona was willing to accept this paltry offering Leafs would be foolish not to agree.

waterbuffalo49

 

 

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15 Aug 2022 01:15:18
That’s a lot to give up for a player who has shown nothing at the pro level so far. so far.

waterbuffalo49

 

 

 

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14 Jun 2022 03:49:53
Yes to NJ Devils 2nd overall.
Yes to Arizona 3rd overall.

Unfortunately I can’t see either of those teams trading one of Shane Wright, Slafkovsky or Logan Cooley for a highly skilled but soft, right wing!

waterbuffalo49

 

 

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14 Jun 2022 03:44:05
Clifford and Simmons?
I thought they had played their way off the team with their abysmal performances against Tampa.
Maroon and Perry showed us what we need on the 4th line and it’s certainly not Clifford &/ or Simmons.

Also, Robertson is a Left Wing not a right wing and Kerfoot needs to be upgraded.

Where do Sandin and Liljegren fit on this team?
They are the only NHL caliber, future prospects that Leafs have on defense.

waterbuffalo49