Leafs talk 2

 

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22 Oct 2020 23:48:42
Dubas was fooled to pay marner same ballpark as matthews. But teams would bite on a marner trade 4 sure.

Leafs Marner
Arizona back up the truck

Arizona bit on Hall they would do it again with marner after next season when they need fans back

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23 Oct 2020 04:55:17
Arizona will not. Arizona can barely pay the players they have now.

23 Oct 2020 14:06:10
Add to that they are trying to move out all of their higher paid older players. Marner is the right age and skill, but wrong price point for them. They are not looking to compete as much as they are to survive.

23 Oct 2020 15:11:32
You guys forget marner is around a 6 million dollar player for them after next year. Not 11 million. He is great for them to get value out of not having to pay him.

23 Oct 2020 15:50:17
Marner's contact is a millstone around his neck and will make it hard for the Leafs to trade him until C19 is cured and the cap goes up. Tavares will be harder to pay $11 mil in a couple of years as he slows due to age.

23 Oct 2020 19:38:47
Randy, not forgetting what Marner gets paid in real dollars. He is still 10.35 next year in total salary and 8 each year after.
The point was, they are not trading us their young talent to get Marner as that is what they want to keep and build on. Maybe and it is a maybe, if we were willing to take Kessel back we could get a some younger players if we also already paid his bonus next year.
Otherwise, why would they trade multiple young picks/ prospects/ roster players to end up with one of what they want instead of multiple?

24 Oct 2020 06:02:59
I feel like that's wrong. I was reading not long ago after this signing bonus he has been paid just over half. 10.35 in salary doesn't sound right.

24 Oct 2020 18:26:20
His salary is 750k/ yr. His signing bonus was 14.3m the next ones are; 9.6, 7.25, 7.25, 7.25.

24 Oct 2020 20:46:23
Yes, bonus and salary is 10.358 next year and 8 each following year. That is why you want to trade him it is best after his bonus is paid next summer, then he is only owed 750,000 for all of next season and 8 each year after.

25 Oct 2020 03:31:24
Bonus is 9.6 next year. According to cap friendly anyway.

22 Oct 2020 23:44:42
Looking at the Leafs free agents, I see a trend:

Simmonds and Bogossian - Desperate to prove they are still NHL players. (Bogossian’s playoff performance notwithstanding) .

Andersen and Vesey - Desperate to prove last season was just an off year.

Spezza and Thornton - Desperate to win a cup before they retire.

Barabanov and Lehtonen - Desperate to prove they are not just Russian wannabe’s.

I’ve never considered desperation a good thing myself. It quickly leads to despair.

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23 Oct 2020 04:57:11
I'm not against some of those moves. I was really hoping to get Bogosian last year when he was available so cheap. When Muzzin went down I don't think anyone can tell me Bogosian would have been a bad guy to have in that series.

I like what Dubas has done thus far. I do also feel like this is the last year when it comes easy. Hyman, Freddy and Reilly are coming up soon. This is a go big or go home year.

23 Oct 2020 10:03:43
The NBCSports has an interesting article yesterday about the new look Leafs. It wasn’t very optimistic. It was pretty pessimistic actually. Makes for a pretty good two minute read. It’s called “Maple Leafs After Free Agency: Better, Worse, Or The Same”.

This is the most important season for this team in a long time. The anxiety felt by the fans, management, and players is very real.

If Leafs don’t do well again this year, big changes will happen.

23 Oct 2020 14:10:48
Agreed. With Muzzin, Tavares and Brodie aging, the window is now. If we continue to look like a talented team that is missing what it takes in the playoffs to succeed, I would have to think one of Nylander or Marner will be gone. Only other option would be to move Rielly for a different style of top d-man, but I doubt that is the answer nor would it be easy to do.

22 Oct 2020 06:18:58
And what does the “studs’n’duds” theory do for internal competition? The “studs” won’t feel a need to improve when they know the “duds” won’t ever steal their jobs from them. They will stalemate. The team as a whole then regresses.

Should the rest of the league adopt this policy, then logically, the same will happen to them as well.

I believe in the free market system, and hockey is as laissez-faire as it gets. The middle class players will get what they are worth somewhere in the world.

Take it to the next level and imagine the whole league tries to operate under the “studs’n’duds” philosophy. What happens to the 40-50 point players that definitely deserve to make more than the 20 point players? They will accept higher offers from overseas. Nigel Dawes (remember him? ) makes over $3M a year playing in Russia. Suffice it to say, that a middle six player being offered $700k to play in the NHL will be more than glad to accept twice that to play in a European league or the KHL somewhere. The exodus of the middle class would weaken the NHL as a whole.

Economic theory has virtually proven as fact that the greater the income inequality a country has, the less competitive it becomes. This would apply equally to a market such as hockey.

If one were to calculate the Gini Coefficient for the teams in the NHL, without doubt, the Leafs would be the most unequal. This cannot have any good long term implications for the team to remain competitive long term.

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22 Oct 2020 07:11:44
Your basically explaining what most economists and psycho analysts have predicted will happen in 50 years if AI takes over lol.

22 Oct 2020 12:49:02
I don't think it is going to be a blueprint if we can't get out of the first freakin round ever. lol.

22 Oct 2020 13:02:55
We need to make the playoffs first in order to get past the first round. That will be a lot harder this year when the teams below us appear to have improved and we have at minimal remained the same or got worse.

So, do Leafs make another trade or run a short roster to start the year? My guess is another trade is on order here.

22 Oct 2020 13:25:24
All true, have to get in first. I don't mind the moves we made, but it is why we had to make them in the first place is the real issue.

22 Oct 2020 17:23:24
All canadian division looks fairly likely right now from what I have read. If it does go through I think Dubas caught a break. If this team can bypass Bos and TB among others they have a much better chance.

22 Oct 2020 22:25:24
That would be the cheesiest way to win ever and an asterisk would definitely be attached to the record. I wouldn’t want to be seen as being gifted a win. It would leave a bad taste in my mouth knowing that the only reason we won was because we had the easiest ride.

23 Oct 2020 15:16:06
I mean, vancouver calgary and 3dmonton are all likely better teams than us this year. Meaning we are still fighting for a wildcard spot.

21 Oct 2020 23:50:34
Hyman Matthews nylander
Thornton Tavares Marner
Vesey Kerfoot mikheyev
Robertson Spezza Simmonds

Rielly Brodie
Muzzin Holl
Dermott bogosian
Lehtonen

Andersen
Campbell

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21 Oct 2020 23:34:48
What's the deal with athanasiou?
Speed demon Can score
Was -46??

Anyways 1 year deal 700k
Add him to the pile

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22 Oct 2020 07:12:26
Agree. Have always liked his game. Hard for a young guy to make strides on a dumpster fire like detroit. Even after being traded it hurts.

22 Oct 2020 12:37:40
He’s too young for the Leafs to be interested. They only want old men for this years class of signings.

21 Oct 2020 20:45:39
Nylander contract is the leafs highest valued deal. The guy that could go after next season is marner

Unless marner is 100 pts a season that contract is hard on leafs

Next off season leafs trade marner

Detroit MANTHA first round 2021 not protected top forward prospect and top defensive prospect in System

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21 Oct 2020 21:26:23
Even at 100 points that's tough to justify without at least scoring 30 goals or 110+. Look around the league at his comparables. It isn't even close.

22 Oct 2020 04:50:40
I also have to add, if we are in agreement here that Marner is overpaid while being a solid player why does detroit do this? Detroit isn't -Marner- away from a cup. They are many, many, many, pieces short. They need a lot of things. They won't give up what will essentially be, a lottery pick, Two A+ prospects and Mantha for him.

If Marner is moved it's to a team lacking in scoring that thinks they can compete soon while also liking that his real dollars value is low. Within a year or two I would out Ottawa in this group. Even still though, you get probably a first+ not a first++++++.

22 Oct 2020 12:56:01
You are almost guaranteed to have to back salary if you move Marner. Not because he isn't a valuable player, it is simply that most teams that are competitive can't absorb a 10.9 cap hit without sending money back. If we want a really good young prospect ++, then we are likely taking on a high cap hit also in return. Cap is flat for at least a couple of years. He would make more sense to trade closer to the end of his deal when cap is starting to rise again. imo.

22 Oct 2020 21:41:23
If you wait that long you may lose Reilly.

23 Oct 2020 14:14:35
Rielly can be kept if you move Nylander for prospects/ picks. Should be able to get a good NHL ready ELC +/ + depending on ELC player. Marner will highly likely mean we have to back back a contract. Depending on the size of the contract to get a solid return, means you may lose Rielly anyway.

21 Oct 2020 15:28:36
Despite what Jumbo has said, I don't think we are built right yet. I don't want to move Nylander, but I do think it is the right move to strengthen other areas and create some cap space for now and the future.

Nash
Nylander 6.96(tor)
2021 3rd(Fla)

Fla
Kunin RFA(Nash)
Dermott RFA (tor)

Tor
Weegar RFA (Fla)
Ingram ELC (Nash)
Novak ELC (Nash)
2021 1st (Nash)

Nash gets Nylander and FLA 3rd for Kunin, Ingram, Novak and a 1st. They make their top 6 more potent and get the best player in the deal without subtracting from their D. They are more built to win now and can afford Nylander cap hit.

Fla gets Kunin and Dermott for Weegar and a 3rd. They get a young top 9 forward who won't break the bank and a young NHL LD they can play hardball with on a contract as Dermott really has no chips to bargain with. They get stronger long term and save money.

Tor gets Weegar, Ingram, Novak and a 1st for Nylander and Dermott. Leafs get a top 4 d-man, one of the top rated goalie prospects, a bottom 6 forward prospect and a 1st while saving about 3.5 in cap space after signing Weegar. They now have the cap space to use at the deadline or try and take advantage of a cap strapped team looking to unload a good player to get under the cap.

With the signings of Vessey, Simmonds, Thornton, Boyd and prospects like Robertson, Anderson, Korshkov, Engvall etc and 3.5M in cap space, we are better set up now and the future.imo

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21 Oct 2020 18:10:42
Another dump Nylander trade. He must really be a slug that there are so many Leaf posts about trading him.

21 Oct 2020 18:51:51
I will never understand the Nylander hate.

He's a 30/ 70 guy that makes under 7. Why is everyone so quick to dump him but Marner making 11 as a 20/ 90 guy is the most beloved player? Neither one showed up in the playoffs. At all. Marner played well beside Mathews and Tavares but I think in that line you could slot anyone in and have a dominant shift.

21 Oct 2020 19:34:01
LL. How is saying I don't want to move Nylander, but feel it is the right move, considered hate? Do you hate Marner, that is why you think he should be moved instead?
To me, we need to move one of the 4 and balance the team more both on the ice and the cap. Matthews should be untouchable. Tavares is going nowhere and has a NMC. Leaves Nylander and Marner.
Willy gets the best return because of his contract, which is better than Marner's. we could get a return where we do not likely NEED to take back cap to make the deal work. With Marner, we likely have to take back cap to make it work. The return is diminished for Marner. We lose the flexibility. If I put Marner in that deal instead, we need to take back a pretty good cap hit on a player we may not want. For instance, Ingram is likely removed and Arvidsson is in as Marner would eat up almost all of the cap space they have left and it would be difficult to fill out their roster. Is Arvidsson the type of player we want at 4.25 for 4 more years. Does it make it worth moving Marner? I don't think it does.

IJ-I guess you feel the same way about Laine with all the trade talk about him.

21 Oct 2020 21:27:00
Had nothing to do with you everyone just always wants to trade Nylander lol.

21 Oct 2020 22:31:32
Cant speak for others, but it seems the most logical move even though he is a very good player.

22 Oct 2020 02:14:40
Most logical I will have my money on Marner. He paid well above what he should be until he proves otherwise.

22 Oct 2020 13:03:36
Yes he is. Which means his return will involve taking back money that we likely don't want to take on. I've looked at many scenarios to move Marner and few teams can afford him that also need his skill set. Nashville seems like a fit, but we are likely having to take on Duschene or minimum Arvidsson and what is Nash willing to add when they have to work around a 10.9 cap hit?

21 Oct 2020 09:28:40
Went on CapFriendly to check out the Leafs cap situation, and something really struck me. Outside of MNMT and Kerfoot (who might still be traded), all the Leafs forwards are signed to one year UFA deals.

All these one year contracts imply a very short term thinking. Dubas appears to be scrambling. Look carefully at each signing and you'll notice an awful lot of question marks beside each player.

They replaced two fast skating offensive players with two aging, slow players with little offensive impact left. They brought in Simmonds, who is battered and has been in steep decline going back at least 3 years now. Vesey, who was the one of the worst players on a poor Buffalo team last year. Anderson and Boyd will make the Marlies a better team but won’t be playing for the Leafs any time soon. Barabanov is unlikely to be an impact player or make a difference.

Sacrificing speed to bring in aging and slowness. All this while telling the scouts that if the prospect has no speed, don’t even consider him. Sounds like a contradiction.

Now, having said all that, I think it’s pretty obvious that once Dermott is signed (if he does get signed), the Leafs will be going with the 4 forwards + 4 defensemen option to protect in the expansion draft. Much different than what anyone possibly could have expected a year ago. If that’s the case, then Kerfoot likely gets traded still, and a cheap depth guy will be signed just to be exposed.

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21 Oct 2020 17:33:06
Thornton, Simmonds, Vesey, Spezza and Hyman all have expiring contracts but I would be extremely surprised if Hyman is allowed to test free agency or be exposed.

In terms of the Leafs starting over in the bottom six next year, very true. Kerfoot is the only guy who will be under contract. They do have a solid pool of forward prospects though that are all pretty close to NHL ready in Hallander, Anderson, Amirov, Korshkov and Robertson. I would expect Dubas to bring in a couple of low-risk, low-salary guys to round out the numbers next year.

It does make for an interesting situation though, like you said a 4x4 exposure could make sense. But Hyman, Kerfoot and Mikheyev would also be important players to protect. It will basically come down to protecting Hyman vs. protecting Lehtonen, Dermott or Holl.

I'm excited for the expansion draft, the Vegas one was a lot of fun to watch. Some teams made some pretty big blunders (Florida in particular) and the Leafs really lucked out by only losing Brendan Leipsic. We'll see if Dubas can get this right.

I honestly anticipate Dubas sending a 1st round pick to Seattle for future considerations like we saw from several teams last time. Legal bribery to protect assets.

21 Oct 2020 18:53:06
I do as well MarsBar. That's what I have said from the start. To many guys to protect and he doesn't seem to care about firsts.

22 Oct 2020 06:23:10
None of the UFA’s need be protected or exposed. Because the draft comes before the start of free agency, it is doubtful Seattle takes any of the Leafs pending UFA players only to risk losing them a week later to free agency. So, theoretically, Leafs can have an agreement in principal with any of their pending UFA’s and just wait until after the draft before signing them in the window between the expansion draft and the start of free agency.

 


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